The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Ether (ETH) futures this week, following the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs in 2021. However, the regulator has yet to approve any of the numerous requests for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which invest in the cryptocurrency’s spot price.
However, economist Alex Krüger believes that this may change soon. In a tweet, he stated that he believes there is currently a 70% probability of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF. Furthermore, he believes that the product will finally enter the market in January 2024.
Krüger noted that his prediction is based on the SEC’s timeline for approval (or denial) of the requests.
Regarding the impact of a Bitcoin ETF approval, Alex predicts that if the SEC rejects the requests for spot Bitcoin ETFs, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could drop to $23,000. This would represent a 17.5% decrease from the current price of $27,900.
However, if the SEC approves a BTC ETF “today,” the price of Bitcoin could reach “annual all-time highs within a week.”
Meanwhile, former BlackRock managing director Steven Schoenfield, who now serves as CEO of MarketVector Indexes, predicts that Bitcoin ETF approvals could come within three to six months. This would suggest a timeframe between December 2023 and March 2024.
In total, there are 16 spot ETF requests awaiting approval from the SEC, including one from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.