September historically tends to be a bad month for Bitcoin (BTC), but that trend has changed in 2023. The largest cryptocurrency in the market ended last month with an almost 4% increase, going from the range of $26,000 to just over $27,000 on the last day of the month.
This is the first time BTC has ended the ninth month of the year with a positive result since 2016. The only two previous instances where Bitcoin finished “in the green” were in 2016 and 2015, according to data from the past 11 years provided by the explorer Coinglass.
From 2017 to 2022, BTC always closed September with a decrease, ranging from -3.12% to -13.38%.
In addition to breaking a historic downward trend in September, BTC also ended a month with gains after two consecutive months of decline. The cryptocurrency experienced an 11.29% drop in August and a 4.02% decline in July.
This poor performance resulted in BTC closing the third quarter with a total depreciation of 11%, marking the first negative quarter of 2023. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has seen a positive increase of 62% in year-to-date returns.
Forecast for Bitcoin in October
As shown in the table above, October has predominantly been a positive month for Bitcoin. The only years where BTC closed October with negative returns were in 2018 (-3.83%) and 2014 (-12.95%).
Naturally, past returns do not guarantee future returns, but analysts’ forecasts for this month of October are optimistic. In fact, the projection is positive for the entire fourth quarter of the year.
According to the cryptocurrency analysis firm Matrixport, the last quarter of the year has historically been the strongest for Bitcoin in terms of performance. The average return over the past nine years has been over 35%. Therefore, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach $37,000 by the end of the year.
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe is even more optimistic. He believes that BTC could reach $40,000.
“Welcome to Uptober [up+October]. Welcome to the fourth quarter, which is shaping up to be an excellent quarter, potentially fueled by ETF approvals and pre-halving recovery. A potential $40,000 Bitcoin is reasonable,” he wrote on Twitter.
It seems that the road ahead looks promising for Bitcoin, and investors are hopeful for a bullish trend in the coming months.